Rivian rose to prominence and garnered a lot of public attention in the automotive industry when it became the largest IPO or Initial Public Offering of 2021. It raised a massive capital of $11.9 billion as an investment, the highest since Facebook in 2012.
However, since then, they have failed to deliver on their promise and have not lived up to the expectation of the shareholders, as they have yet to see the return they were hoping for.
So, what do you think? Will they be able to bounce back from their current situation? Do you want to know about the Rivian stock forecast?
We have tried to analyze the stock from multiple angles and tried to take into consideration what the analysts and experts think about Rivian from different sources. After reading this article, you will have a fair idea about Rivian and its future price.
Rivian or Rivian Automotive Inc. is an American company that sells electric vehicles. They are based out of California and are famous for their electric SUVs, Pickup Trucks, and fleet services of Vans.
Some of their best-selling models are R1S and R1T. All their vehicles are supported by their in-house Rivian Operating System. They have also developed an ecosystem of products and services, such as accessories and ancillary services, which they sell along with electric vehicles.
Company Name | Rivian Automotive, Inc. |
Headquarters | Irvine, California, United States |
Year Founded | 2009 |
Founder & CEO | Robert Joseph Scaringe |
Industry | Auto Manufacturers |
Sector | Consumer Cyclical |
Products |
|
No. of Employees | 14,122 |
Production Output | 24,337 |
Rivian originated from the idea of preserving the environment for future generations and reducing carbon footprint under the able guidance of their CEO, RJ Scaringe.
He always aimed to provide a clean and sustainable alternative to the current transportation system, which uses heavy vehicles using much fossil fuel. That is why he became an electric vehicle manufacturer.
However, although the idea was great on paper, they could not build a competitive edge with a distinctive competence that would allow them to leverage the market.
They lacked the infrastructure and resources to manufacture vehicles at a large scale and faced stiff competition from much more prominent and well-established brands such as Tesla and Ford.
Hence, their success is not inevitable, and the verdict is still out on whether they will succeed.
Let us look at some of the statistics on the performance of the Rivian and its stock. The data has been collected from Yahoo Finance.
Market Cap (intraday) | 13.57B |
Enterprise Value | 3.82B |
Trailing P/E | N/A |
Forward P/E | N/A |
PEG Ratio (5 yr expected) | N/A |
Price/Sales (ttm) | 8.06 |
Price/Book (mrq) | 0.98 |
Enterprise Value/Revenue | 2.30 |
Enterprise Value/EBITDA | – |
Profit Margin | 0.00% |
Operating Margin (ttm) | -413.51% |
Revenue (ttm) | 1.66B |
Revenue Per Share (ttm) | 1.82 |
Quarterly Revenue Growth (yoy) | 1,127.80% |
Gross Profit (ttm) | -3.12B |
EBITDA | -6.2B |
Net Income Avi to Common (ttm) | -6.75B |
Diluted EPS (Earnings Per Share) (ttm) | -14.53 |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (yoy) | N/A |
Total Cash (mrq) | 11.57B |
Total Cash Per Share (mrq) | 12.48 |
Total Debt (mrq) | 1.81B |
Total Debt/Equity (mrq) | 13.13 |
Current Ratio (mrq) | 5.42 |
Book Value Per Share (mrq) | 14.90 |
Operating Cash Flow (ttm) | -5.05B |
Levered Free Cash Flow (ttm) | -4.21B |
Legend: ttm – trailing twelve months, yoy – year over year, mrq – most recent quarter
As we can see from the profitability metric, they have a negative operating margin of 413.51% which means that the company cannot control its costs, which is always a bad sign.
Although Rivian was once a $150 billion firm, the market capitalization has now dropped to a mere $13.57 billion.
We can see from the income statement that although the revenue growth has been good, the cost has been so high that the gross profit and EBITDA or Earnings Before Interest Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization run in huge losses at -$3.12 billion and -$6.2 billion respectively.
It indicates that Rivian needs to deliver and sell more cars to rejig the brand.
The Balance Sheet shows that the Total Debt/ Equity in the most recent quarter is 13.13, calculated by dividing the total debt by equity.
A high value of 13.13 indicates that the outstanding debt is very high, and if measures are not taken to boost the performance, it might lead to a disaster. 2 to 2.5 is considered a healthy debt-to-equity ratio.
Let us now look at Rivian Stock’s historical performance.
52-Week Change | -68.23% |
S&P500 52-Week Change | -10.06% |
52 Week High | 56.76 |
52 Week Low | 12.80 |
50-Day Moving Average | 17.76 |
200-Day Moving Average | 27.98 |
Avg Vol (3 month) | 31.5M |
Avg Vol (10 day) | 57.68M |
Shares Outstanding | 883.4M |
Implied Shares Outstanding | N/A |
Float | 599.35M |
% Held by Insiders | 12.16% |
% Held by Institutions | 67.91% |
Shares Short (Feb 27, 2023) | 35.16M |
Short Ratio (Feb 27, 2023) | 1.48 |
Short % of Float (Feb 27, 2023) | 9.18% |
Short % of Shares Outstanding (Feb 27, 2023) | 3.79% |
Shares Short (prior month Jan 30, 2023) | 40.21M |
Rivian Stock has had a shaky performance. It reached a 52-week high of $56.76 and then dropped to a 52-week low of $12.80. It is trading at a current price of $13.04.
The current 50-Day Moving Average and 200-Day Moving Average values are $17.76 and $27.98, respectively. The price has dropped 68.23% in the last 52-week period.
It has seen a drop of 16% in March which is the highest drop after its May 2022 drop of 20.88%
We can see that insiders hold 12.16%, and institutions hold 67.91%. Approximately 77.30% of the float (a float is the number of company shares available for public trading) is controlled by institutions, and the number of institutions holding shares is 835.
Some of the top institutional investors are as follows:
| Holder | Shares | % Out | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Amazon.com, Inc. | 158,363,834 | 17.23% | 2,098,304,942 |
| Price (T.Rowe) Associates Inc | 116,604,944 | 12.68% | 1,545,003,831 |
| Blackrock Inc. | 49,460,457 | 5.38% | 655,346,102 |
| Vanguard Group, Inc. (The) | 37,037,417 | 4.03% | 490,742,066 |
| Capital Research Global Investors | 35,597,775 | 3.87% | 471,666,954 |
| FMR, LLC | 25,699,221 | 2.80% | 340,512,104 |
| Soros Fund Management LLC | 14,344,823 | 1.56% | 190,067,468 |
| D1 Capital Partners, LP | 13,908,880 | 1.51% | 184,291,267 |
| T. Rowe Price Investment Management, Inc. | 9,696,665 | 1.05% | 128,479,840 |
| State Street Corporation | 9,269,908 | 1.01% | 122,825,352 |
The price prediction for Rivian Stock in 2025 is $15.23 approximately.
It was as high as $47.88, but due to current market conditions and the massive drop in its share price, the prediction is adjusted to $15.23. The data is based on Nasdaq and GoBankingrates.
Per Pandaforecast, the stock price should reach a target price of $21.28 by Jan 2025.
The entire 2025 stock price forecast for Rivian by Pandaforecast is as follows:
| Month | Target | Pes. | Opt. | Vol., % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 21.28 | 19.68 | 23.89 | 17.64 % |
| Feb | 18.14 | 16.84 | 19.29 | 12.70 % |
| Mar | 17.65 | 15.97 | 19.62 | 18.62 % |
| Apr | 17.56 | 15.03 | 18.70 | 19.61 % |
| May | 17.37 | 15.87 | 19.62 | 19.12 % |
| Jun | 16.99 | 15.77 | 18.95 | 16.79 % |
| Jul | 14.52 | 13.42 | 15.80 | 15.05 % |
| Aug | 13.29 | 12.40 | 15.10 | 17.89 % |
| Sep | 12.12 | 11.07 | 13.73 | 19.38 % |
| Oct | 10.37 | 9.49 | 11.81 | 19.60 % |
| Nov | 11.96 | 10.28 | 12.97 | 20.75 % |
| Dec | 11.55 | 10.49 | 12.26 | 14.42 % |
However, it is impossible to predict with absolute conviction what will happen to the price of Rivian shares in 2025 as certain macroeconomic conditions may influence the stock price in the stock market.
As more time passes, analysts would modify their Rivian Stock price forecast based on market conditions, stock price volatility, and other external factors.
Over 20 analysts have formed a varied range of opinions regarding Rivian for the next 12 months, and as a result, the price prediction varies within a wide range from a low of $27 to a high of $83. The median 12-month price target remains at $53.20
So, let us now check what Tradingview and Yahoo Finance predict for the next twelve months for Rivian.
Based on the historical data, 19 analysts have predicted an average price target of $28.42 with a maximum estimate of $44 and a minimum estimate of $16.
Based on the rating by 21 analysts, the indicator indicates a Buy Signal.
According to the revenue estimates made in 2021 and 2022, the actual revenues were -9.09% and -2.62% from the estimated revenues.
Tradingview analysts project revenue of $8.51 billion in 2024.
Rivian is a very innovative hi-tech auto manufacturing company working to make the environment safe. It is a big plus as the world moves towards more green and sustainable energies.
It is one of the first companies to deliver all-electric pickup trucks. It is their core vehicle and has the first-mover advantage in this particular electric vehicle market segment and can scale up production and be the market leader in future years.
Apart from their core electric vehicle models, they have a wide range of products, such as batteries, charging networks, and insurance services. They are a great source of additional recurring revenue.
Their popular model R1S is a huge hit and has already bagged 98,000 preorders and orders of about 100,000 electric vans from Amazon.
However, according to recent news, Rivian wants to cancel the exclusivity deal with Amazon as they have ordered less than they promised.
Although, they need to scale up their operations, fulfill these orders, and deliver them within the expected timeline. It will significantly boost Rivian investors and may bring in new investments.
Rivian targeted to produce 25,000 vehicles by the end of 2022. Although they barely made it and produced 24,337 by the end of 2022, they had to recall 13,000 vehicles due to a potential loose fastener.
It indicates all is not right. The way they are burning cash and producing subpar results proves that there are a lot of internal issues.
In Jan 2023, The Wall Street Journal reported that many experienced employees had left the company and were struggling. It was referred to as a “Challenging Period for Rivian.”
On the other hand, Tesla produced 254,000 electric vehicles in the last quarter of 2022 and sold nearly 4 million vehicles in 2021.
Hence, if Rivian wants to survive in this domain, they need to buckle up and focus on smooth operations, or it will cease to exist.
Although it is difficult to predict the price of any stock with accuracy, however as per different analysts following the Rivian stock closely could not agree on a specific price and have offered a wide range of year-out price targets for the Rivian shares over the next 12 months, the price varies between $27 to $83 with the median price being $53.20.
What the price of Rivian’s stock will be in 2030 is anybody’s guess, as the conditions may be completely different. Macroeconomic conditions play a considerable role in the market’s mood and hence the price of stocks.
However, given the current trend of green energy and a sustainable environment, predicting that the demand for electric vehicles will only grow will not be wrong. So the demand for Rivian vehicles should also increase.
If Rivian can maintain sustainable growth, it should be able to come out of this turmoil and at least match its IPO price of $78, i.e., growing almost 600% in the next seven years.
According to Goldman Sachs, the total number of electric vehicles in 2040 will surpass 78 million across the globe.
The study further indicates that the global profit pool of EV companies will be around $93 billion by 2030.
It proves there is a vast potential for EV vehicles, and if Rivian plays its card right, then it should easily surpass its all-time high of $179.47 in 2021 and even go past $200.
Multiple issues need to be tackled and resolved by Rivian. They are as follows:
Smooth operation with optimal use of funds is necessary for a company to grow sustainably. Rivian Automotive has been suffering as they have been burning cash at an alarming rate and don’t have much to showcase in return.
They are further projected to burn through $21 billion until 2025. As discussed earlier, they are already in huge losses of almost $3.12 billion.
They had an operating cash flow of -5.12 billion and a revenue of $1.66 billion in the trailing twelve-month period.
Rivian must take hold of the aggressive cash burn and focus on manufacturing and vehicle deliveries.
Car manufacturers require significant cash reserves and could easily fall short if they are not careful with their burning spree. They would lead to a problematic situation that may turn fatal for the company.
If they fail to honor their deals, it will be a huge blow to the company and its shareholders. It is a golden opportunity, and they must reconvene their effort to manage the excessive spending.
Rivian has been facing a lot of challenges in terms of its manufacturing. A letter to the shareholders by Rivian mentioned that they were forced to cut the production outlook from 50,000 to 25,000.
They further said they expected negative gross margins in 2022, as seen in the income statement. They said they were expanding their facilities, managing supply chain issues, reducing price increases, and other augmented overheads.
It has created an unfavorable environment for Rivian Automotive. It was reflected by the recent step taken by the billionaire investor George Soros despite his company’s focus on green energy.
His investment firm is said to have sold millions of Rivian’s shares and invested in shares of other EV companies such as Tesla and Ford. Diversifying his funds may be a tactic, but it adds to the woes given the current conditions.
The electric vehicle startup needed to take austerity measures with growing inflationary pressure, rising materials prices for electric vehicle production, and other hardships. The company has also planned to reduce the workforce by making a 6% job cut. They have laid off 249 people in Palo Alto and 479 people statewide.
They must immediately sort out these production challenges to grow and sustain that growth.
Also Read:
Rivian stock price prediction for 2030 is at least $78. The price forecast 2025 is approximately $15.23 to 21.28, and the price prediction for Rivian stock 2040 is over $179.41 to $200.
Most analysts from different platforms have given Rivian NASDAQ: RIVN a positive growth rate for the upcoming months. In the long term, it may grow exponentially, given the increasing demand for electric vehicles. It may be a good buy, but do your research and consult a professional financial advisor before making any decision.
The longevity of the car depends on its usage. However, Rivian provides a standard warranty with all its car models, including a bumper to bumper coverage for five years or 60,000 miles. They also provide a battery or drivetrain policy for eight years or 175,000 miles.
Read More:
There are ample growth opportunities that Rivian needs to take advantage of and boost its overall sales growth.
Although the Rivian stock price prediction 2025 is $15.23 to 21.28 and may even vary within a wider range depending on the macroeconomic condition, the company should overcome its challenges regarding cash burn and production difficulties.
They should reduce elevated costs and focus on long-term growth. Their focus should be on seeking substantial investments and expansion of their production capacity to gain advantage over their competitors and implement sustainable growth.
Disclaimer: All the information presented in the article has been collected independently by BitMoneyAlpha and has not been reviewed or approved by Rivian. The product information may vary. Please check the company website for the latest information. The statements and opinions expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily represent the views or opinions of any company. The content is for informational purposes only. It is not financial advice. So, before investing, do your due diligence and always invest what you are comfortable losing, as all investments are your responsibility.
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